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What this means. A wallet put $30.0k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 70% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$30.0k
SELL Yes @ 30¢ · 100,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kLate (<1h before start)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took Yes (sell) for $30.0k at an average 30¢. At that price the market implied a 70% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $30.0k+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 30¢
- Implied odds
- 70.0%
- Size
- $30.0k
- Placed
- Jun 11, 14:37 EDT
- Market close
- May 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0xee9e4d3a…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $134.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $110.4k | excluded |