2Sherlock

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?+$5Yes · avg 63¢ → 64¢ · $635 Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?+$22No · avg 90¢ → 93.7¢ · $525 Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?−$73No · avg 42¢ → 36¢ · $402 Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?+$190No · avg 22¢ → 65¢ · $286 Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?+$182Yes · avg 20¢ → 65¢ · $261 Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?+$69Yes · avg 45¢ → 65¢ · $224 Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?−$154Yes · avg 16¢ → 9¢ · $194 Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?−$35Yes · avg 36¢ → 30¢ · $167

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$10.2k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$4,899

Last 30 days +$3,924 · $132.6k volume · 504 trades · since Mar 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$5,761

Open P&L · 26 positions

−$842

Closed-position win rate

76%

58 closed

Wallet age · markets

209d

82 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result	Open on Polymarket
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$10.2k	100%	129d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$10.2k

LOW 2Sherlock · 129d ago

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