← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $38.5k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 5% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$38.5k
SELL Yes @ 94.7¢ · 40,642 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet2.1× this wallet's usual betEconomy
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took Yes (sell) for $38.5k at an average 94.7¢. At that price the market implied a 5% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $38.5k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 94.7¢
- Implied odds
- 5.3%
- Size
- $38.5k
- Placed
- Jan 12, 06:38 EST
- Market close
- Jan 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0xebb9f9ff…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
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Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $55.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $139.9k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |