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What this means. A wallet put $12.0k on not No, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.0k
SELL No @ 99.6¢ · 12,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet JosephTrump took No (sell) for $12.0k at an average 99.6¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.0k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.6¢
- Implied odds
- 0.4%
- Size
- $12.0k
- Placed
- Apr 30, 17:02 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 20, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- JosephTrump
- Tx
- 0xe8c818b1…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-84.0 pts
expected 0.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $244.7k 5.6× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $96.3k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $379.0k 10.1× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $64.9k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $628.8k 20.9× usual |
excluded |