← Wallets
+$727Yes · avg 81¢ → 91.5¢ · $6,405+$300No · avg 88¢ → 94¢ · $4,700+$533No · avg 85¢ → 97.7¢ · $3,989+$1,730Yes · avg 43¢ → 80¢ · $3,753−$5No · avg 87¢ → 86¢ · $2,595+$125No · avg 69¢ → 74¢ · $2,205 · 1 proven with, 0 against−$133No · avg 31¢ → 30¢ · $2,085−$94No · avg 84¢ → 80¢ · $2,000
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -84.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-84.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$65.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±36.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$23.5k
Last 30 days +$8,298 · $4.68M volume · 8,680 trades · since May 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 471 closed
+$15.2k
Open P&L · 50 positions
+$3,492
Closed-position win rate
62%
471 closed
Wallet age · markets
878d
475 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -84.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $16.3k | missed |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $24.8k | called |
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