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What this means. A wallet put $194.4k on No, at a price that gave it a 100% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has a proven record: +12.8 pts vs the price over 34 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$194.4k
BUY No @ 99.7¢ · 195,000 shares
Size ≥ $100kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Proven wallet8.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet GoriIIa took No (buy) for $194.4k at an average 99.7¢. At that price the market implied a 100% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $194.4k+2
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 100¢ means
100%chance the market gave
—American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.7¢
- Implied odds
- 99.7%
- Size
- $194.4k
- Placed
- Apr 30, 17:23 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 20, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- GoriIIa
- Tx
- 0xe7a9ec16…
This wallet's graded record
32/34+12.8 pts
expected 27.7 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $244.7k 5.6× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $96.3k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $379.0k 10.1× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $64.9k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $628.8k 20.9× usual |
excluded |