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What this means. A wallet put $15.7k on not No, at a price that gave it a 4% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.7k
SELL No @ 95.8¢ · 16,421 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (sell) for $15.7k at an average 95.8¢. At that price the market implied a 4% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $15.7k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 95.8¢
- Implied odds
- 4.2%
- Size
- $15.7k
- Placed
- Feb 27, 05:25 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0xe46a33f6…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $24.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 98¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ | $25.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $34.9k | excluded |