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What this means. A wallet put $11.5k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 46% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$11.5k
BUY Yes @ 46¢ · 25,133 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took Yes (buy) for $11.5k at an average 46¢. At that price the market implied a 46% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $11.5k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 46¢ means
46%chance the market gave
+119American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 46¢
- Implied odds
- 45.7%
- Size
- $11.5k
- Placed
- May 23, 09:36 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0xe1379aa8…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $34.6k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $34.0k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |