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Lisbon

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$12.8kNo · avg 50¢ → 87¢ · $30.0kWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$57No · avg 92¢ → 91.5¢ · $10.5kWill the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?+$270Yes · avg 92¢ → 95.3¢ · $7,770Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$75Yes · avg 90¢ → 91.5¢ · $4,575Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$12.8kYes · avg 50¢ → 13¢ · $4,342Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?−$15No · avg 92.5¢ → 92¢ · $2,777Will the Republican Party win the OH-01 House seat?+$172No · avg 89¢ → 95.7¢ · $2,566Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat?−$15Yes · avg 92.1¢ → 91.5¢ · $2,103
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$224.6k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$10.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.81M volume · 11,487 trades · since Sep 13, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$28.4k
Open P&L · 34 positions
+$94
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
771d
659 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $29.7k1% 37d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $25.9k0% 50d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $12.5k99% 52d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $12.0k100% 62d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $30.0k0% 83d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $29.9k100% 86d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $14.0k100% 130d agoexcluded
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $12.0k100% 289d agoexcluded
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $22.5k100% 293d agoexcluded
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $15.0k100% 293d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $21.0k100% 295d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.1¢$29.7k
LOW Lisbon · 37d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$25.9k
LOW Lisbon · 50d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$12.5k
LOW Lisbon · 52d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$12.0k
LOW Lisbon · 62d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$30.0k
LOW Lisbon · 83d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$29.9k
LOW Lisbon · 86d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$14.0k
LOW Lisbon · 130d ago
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$12.0k
LOW Lisbon · 289d ago
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$22.5k
LOW Lisbon · 293d ago
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$15.0k
LOW Lisbon · 293d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$21.0k
LOW Lisbon · 295d ago

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