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What this means. A wallet put $999.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 100% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$999.0k
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ · 1,000,050 shares
Size ≥ $250kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)19.7× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet elmcap2 took Yes (buy) for $999.0k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 100% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $999.0k+3
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 100¢ means
100%chance the market gave
—American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 99.9%
- Size
- $999.0k
- Placed
- Jul 22, 20:11 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 19, 23:59 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- elmcap2
- Tx
- 0xe1184aad…
This wallet's graded record
3/3+3.7 pts
expected 2.9 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $36.5k | excluded |
| Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.1k | excluded |
| Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $257.6k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $149.8k 6.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $208.8k | excluded |