← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $28.4k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$28.4k
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ · 28,391 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideProven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took Yes (sell) for $28.4k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $28.4k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 0.1%
- Size
- $28.4k
- Placed
- Feb 28, 02:42 EST
- Market close
- Feb 28, 04:34 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0xe0573eb3…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -0 ptsYes price · entry 99.9¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $27.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $38.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $106.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |