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What this means. A wallet put $20.1k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 5% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$20.1k
BUY Yes @ 4.7¢ · 430,756 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideSports
What happened
Wallet lupo8 took Yes (buy) for $20.1k at an average 4.7¢. At that price the market implied a 5% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $20.1k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 5¢ means
5%chance the market gave
+2040American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 4.7¢
- Implied odds
- 4.7%
- As American odds
- +2040 no vig
- Size
- $20.1k
- Placed
- Jul 05, 20:01 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 06, 02:13 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- lupo8
- Tx
- 0xde6bf6cc…
This wallet's graded record
0/2-22.8 pts
expected 0.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -5 ptsYes price · entry 4.7¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $115.6k 6.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ | $89.2k | called |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 95.9¢ | $53.2k | called |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 95.7¢ | $16.1k | called |