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What this means. A wallet put $19.3k on No, at a price that gave it a 96% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$19.3k
BUY No @ 96.5¢ · 20,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet scout took No (buy) for $19.3k at an average 96.5¢. At that price the market implied a 96% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $19.3k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 96¢ means
96%chance the market gave
−2757American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 96.5¢
- Implied odds
- 96.5%
- Size
- $19.3k
- Placed
- Dec 18, 15:58 EST
- Market close
- Aug 18, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- scout
- Tx
- 0xdbbc52ca…
This wallet's graded record
4/4+4.8 pts
expected 3.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $32.3k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $45.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |