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What this means. A wallet put $196.8k on not No, at a price that gave it a 23% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$196.8k
SELL No @ 77¢ · 255,187 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side3 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)8.6× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet amundsen11 took No (sell) for $196.8k at an average 77¢. At that price the market implied a 23% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $196.8k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
3 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 77¢
- Implied odds
- 22.9%
- Size
- $196.8k
- Placed
- Mar 27, 09:52 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- amundsen11
- Tx
- 0xcdef5d36…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+37.0 pts
expected 0.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -23 ptsNo price · entry 77¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $47.6k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $41.2k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 9.3× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $97.4k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $48.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |