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What this means. A wallet put $12.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 79% chance. It lost. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.5k
BUY No @ 79¢ · 15,848 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took No (buy) for $12.5k at an average 79¢. At that price the market implied a 79% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.5k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 79¢ means
79%chance the market gave
−376American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 79¢
- Implied odds
- 79.0%
- Size
- $12.5k
- Placed
- Jan 06, 12:39 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0xca51dacf…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $64.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $26.1k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $17.0k | excluded |