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What this means. A wallet put $12.6k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 86% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.6k
SELL Yes @ 14¢ · 89,721 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteProven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took Yes (sell) for $12.6k at an average 14¢. At that price the market implied a 86% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.6k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 14¢
- Implied odds
- 86.0%
- Size
- $12.6k
- Placed
- Apr 21, 04:06 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 21, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0xbd8f8e7b…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +14 ptsYes price · entry 14¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |