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What this means. A wallet put $11.5k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 23% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$11.5k
BUY Yes @ 23¢ · 50,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet 0x43be…5000 took Yes (buy) for $11.5k at an average 23¢. At that price the market implied a 23% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $11.5k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 23¢ means
23%chance the market gave
+335American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 23¢
- Implied odds
- 23.0%
- Size
- $11.5k
- Placed
- Jan 11, 02:17 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x43be…5000
- Tx
- 0xaea13c32…
This wallet's graded record
0/2-24.0 pts
expected 0.5 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $34.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | HIGH SELL No @ 82¢ | $319.4k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $35.4k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.3k | excluded |