← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $23.2k on not No, at a price that gave it a 2% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$23.2k
SELL No @ 98.1¢ · 23,630 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet just.some.guy.2026 took No (sell) for $23.2k at an average 98.1¢. At that price the market implied a 2% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $23.2k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 98.1¢
- Implied odds
- 1.9%
- Size
- $23.2k
- Placed
- Jan 26, 07:44 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- just.some.guy.2026
- Tx
- 0xaa7948e1…
This wallet's graded record
2/4-5.9 pts
expected 2.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -2 ptsNo price · entry 98.1¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $17.1k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $30.2k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $78.3k 2.4× usual |
excluded |