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What this means. A wallet put $99.0k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 4% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$99.0k
SELL Yes @ 96.5¢ · 102,569 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side3 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)Proven wallet5.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took Yes (sell) for $99.0k at an average 96.5¢. At that price the market implied a 4% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $99.0k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
3 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 96.5¢
- Implied odds
- 3.5%
- Size
- $99.0k
- Placed
- Feb 28, 18:31 EST
- Market close
- Feb 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0xa7f12379…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $83.5k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $103.1k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |