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What this means. A wallet put $43.7k on No, at a price that gave it a 94% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$43.7k
BUY No @ 94¢ · 46,500 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet2.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (buy) for $43.7k at an average 94¢. At that price the market implied a 94% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $43.7k+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 94¢ means
94%chance the market gave
−1567American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 94¢
- Implied odds
- 94.0%
- Size
- $43.7k
- Placed
- Apr 24, 10:24 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0xa7c2f7bb…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +6 ptsNo price · entry 94¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $21.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $65.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $21.0k | excluded |