← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $58.9k on not No, at a price that gave it a 5% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$58.9k
SELL No @ 95¢ · 61,953 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet2.2× this wallet's usual betCrypto
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took No (sell) for $58.9k at an average 95¢. At that price the market implied a 5% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $58.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 95¢
- Implied odds
- 5.0%
- Size
- $58.9k
- Placed
- May 26, 23:17 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 01, 13:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0xa3e788bb…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -5 ptsNo price · entry 95¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $93.3k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $351.6k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $360.0k 7.9× usual |
excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |