← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $601.3k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$601.3k
BUY Yes @ 99¢ · 607,593 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $250kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)12× this wallet's usual betEconomy
What happened
Wallet elmcap2 took Yes (buy) for $601.3k at an average 99¢. At that price the market implied a 99% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $601.3k+3
Near-certain price-2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 99¢ means
99%chance the market gave
−9607American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99¢
- Implied odds
- 99.0%
- Size
- $601.3k
- Placed
- Jan 24, 09:54 EST
- Market close
- Jan 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- elmcap2
- Tx
- 0xa0d6be0a…
This wallet's graded record
3/3+3.7 pts
expected 2.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +1 ptsYes price · entry 99¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $55.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $139.9k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |