← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $15.8k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 38% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.8k
SELL Yes @ 62¢ · 25,419 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took Yes (sell) for $15.8k at an average 62¢. At that price the market implied a 38% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.8k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 62¢
- Implied odds
- 38.0%
- Size
- $15.8k
- Placed
- Feb 24, 08:37 EST
- Market close
- Feb 28, 04:34 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0x9ee64274…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -38 ptsYes price · entry 62¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $27.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $38.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $106.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |