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What this means. A wallet put $12.1k on No, at a price that gave it a 88% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.1k
BUY No @ 88¢ · 13,802 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (buy) for $12.1k at an average 88¢. At that price the market implied a 88% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.1k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 88¢ means
88%chance the market gave
−720American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 88¢
- Implied odds
- 87.8%
- Size
- $12.1k
- Placed
- Mar 25, 00:17 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x982ba51b…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +12 ptsNo price · entry 88¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $43.0k | excluded |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 96.6¢ | $13.5k | missed |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $12.3k | called |