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LiLaoShi2

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -35.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-35.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$169.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2,897
Last 30 days +$0 · $378.7k volume · 38 trades · since Mar 04, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$3,897
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$1,000
Closed-position win rate
57%
14 closed
Wallet age · markets
234d
15 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports100.9-85.3 pts
Other110.8+15.3 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?LOW BUY No @ 93.7¢ $12.0k94% 181d agocalled
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?LOW SELL No @ 88¢ $23.3k12% 182d agomissed
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $11.4k86% 184d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $11.4k1% 185d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $11.3k85% 205d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $11.3k1% 206d agoexcluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $14.0k85% 207d agocalled
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢ $14.0k3% 207d agoexcluded
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 93.7¢ $13.5k94% 209d agocalled
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 82¢ $11.8k18% 213d agomissed
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $12.1k84% 214d agocalled
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 89¢ $12.1k11% 214d agomissed
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $11.6k85% 220d agocalled

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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x9fe617…