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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -3.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.4 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$44.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$14.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $257.5k volume · 51 trades · since Mar 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$15.6k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$1,500
Closed-position win rate
77%
13 closed
Wallet age · markets
233d
15 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢ | $16.2k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $14.7k | called |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 96.6¢ | $13.5k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe8e406…