← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $45.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 98% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$45.6k
BUY No @ 98¢ · 46,541 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet elmcap2 took No (buy) for $45.6k at an average 98¢. At that price the market implied a 98% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $45.6k+1
Near-certain price-2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 98¢ means
98%chance the market gave
−4780American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 98¢
- Implied odds
- 98.0%
- Size
- $45.6k
- Placed
- May 05, 09:14 EDT
- Market close
- May 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- elmcap2
- Tx
- 0x955ef0af…
This wallet's graded record
3/3+3.7 pts
expected 2.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +2 ptsNo price · entry 98¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $47.2k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $26.4k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $37.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $60.9k | excluded |