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What this means. A wallet put $10.3k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 86% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+12.9 pts over 25 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.3k
BUY Yes @ 86¢ · 11,942 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ndb1 took Yes (buy) for $10.3k at an average 86¢. At that price the market implied a 86% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.3k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 86¢ means
86%chance the market gave
−614American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 86¢
- Implied odds
- 86.0%
- Size
- $10.3k
- Placed
- May 18, 19:53 EDT
- Market close
- May 19, 20:17 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ndb1
- Tx
- 0x908410e2…
This wallet's graded record
16/25+12.9 pts
expected 12.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +14 ptsYes price · entry 86¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $60.3k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.4k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $17.7k | called |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $13.1k | called |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 86¢ | $15.4k | missed |