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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did +5.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -1.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.6 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$257.0k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$4k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? at 67¢) and the edge is -1.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 37% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 67% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 89% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$13.7k
Last 30 days +$42.9k · $4.56M volume · 2,567 trades · since Oct 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$57.2k
Open P&L · 12 positions
−$43.1k
Closed-position win rate
56%
358 closed
Wallet age · markets
375d
316 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | +1.3 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | +12.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13? | LOW BUY No @ 47¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $10.3k | called |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $26.5k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11? | MED BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $50.6k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20? | LOW BUY No @ 52¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $36.8k 2.1× usual |
called |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $24.3k | excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $24.9k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $13.1k | called |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $13.3k | called |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY No @ 37¢ | $16.6k | missed |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $12.5k | called |
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