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+$200No · avg 92¢ → 92.5¢ · $37.0k+$1,392No · avg 64¢ → 73¢ · $11.3k−$45No · avg 75¢ → 74¢ · $6,633+$1,167No · avg 7¢ → 8.5¢ · $6,611−$35Yes · avg 67¢ → 66¢ · $4,627 · 2 proven with, 0 against−$1,588No · avg 37¢ → 26¢ · $4,028
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 4.2 wins, so it did -2.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-2.8 pts
Called / graded
4/7
Expected from price
4.2
Flagged volume
$297.3k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$29k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Seahawks vs. Patriots at 68¢) and the edge is -8.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 27% · n=2
40–60¢
0% vs 42% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 73% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 89% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$39.8k
Last 30 days +$14.4k · $29.58M volume · 98,940 trades · since Dec 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.13M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$1.49M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
318d
1059 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 2.7 | +7.8 pts |
| Other | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | -17.0 pts |
History
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