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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did +27.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+27.7 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$148.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±29.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$167.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $612.8k volume · 21 trades · since Sep 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$229.4k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$60.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
5 closed
Wallet age · markets
400d
10 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.2 | +83.5 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -28.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $38.1k | called |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.4k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 82¢ | $18.4k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $13.2k | called |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 28¢ | $24.8k | missed |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $14.6k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1686b3…