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Polymarket · Other · one bet
OpenResolves Dec 31
$39.9k
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
randomgo sold No at 97.1¢. Their side is the other outcome, which the price gave a 3% chance. 41,057 shares, Oct 29, 19:04 EDT.
Plain exchange link. No referral code.
What this means. A wallet put $39.9k on not No, at a price that gave it a 3% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no graded bets yet. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
[01] Bet
What happened
Wallet randomgo sold No for $39.9k at an average 97.1¢. At that price the market implied 3% for the side they took. Open: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More It still counts toward the score.
[02] Flag
Why it was flagged
Med. Labels do not change the grade. Methodology
Size $39.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Fresh walletOther
[04] Price
Price since the bet
Price since this bet
Since entry -0.4 ptsNo price · entry 97.1¢ · now 97.5¢ · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $14.0k | OpenResolves Dec 31 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ | $65.8k | OpenResolves Dec 31 |