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What this means. A wallet put $16.8k on not No, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$16.8k
SELL No @ 99.9¢ · 16,802 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet Incognitoo took No (sell) for $16.8k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $16.8k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 0.1%
- Size
- $16.8k
- Placed
- Feb 14, 00:23 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Incognitoo
- Tx
- 0x8d82b2f1…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-3.9 pts
expected 0.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $200.8k 5.2× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |