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What this means. A wallet put $19.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 93% chance. It won. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$19.0k
BUY No @ 92.8¢ · 20,476 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet MissaoComFlavio took No (buy) for $19.0k at an average 92.8¢. At that price the market implied a 93% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $19.0k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 93¢ means
93%chance the market gave
−1287American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 92.8¢
- Implied odds
- 92.8%
- Size
- $19.0k
- Placed
- Aug 12, 16:11 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 04, 23:59 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MissaoComFlavio
- Tx
- 0x87cc56f8…
This wallet's graded record
3/5-13.1 pts
expected 3.7 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $62.6k 4.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
Same event on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same event, which can be on a different answer than this bet. Kalshi's trade tape has no account id. A public nickname shows on the Kalshi flag when the social feed names that side.
| YES Flávio Bolsonaro | $21.4k | 83¢ | 3h ago |
| NO Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | $12.4k | 83¢ | 4h ago |
| YES Flávio Bolsonaro | $24.4k | 83¢ | 15h ago |
| NO Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | $12.6k | 78¢ | 19h ago |