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What this means. A wallet put $22.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 50% chance. It won. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$22.5k
BUY No @ 50¢ · 45,015 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletEconomy
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took No (buy) for $22.5k at an average 50¢. At that price the market implied a 50% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $22.5k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 50¢ means
50%chance the market gave
−100American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 50¢
- Implied odds
- 50.0%
- Size
- $22.5k
- Placed
- Sep 07, 11:14 EDT
- Market close
- Sep 15, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0x76b9cc1a…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +50 ptsNo price · entry 50¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 95.6¢ | $49.5k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $33.2k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 14¢ | $31.9k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY No @ 89¢ | $30.3k | excluded |