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Polymarket · Politics · one bet
OpenAwaiting resolution
$25.5k
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Tenebrus7 sold No at 97.6¢. Their side is the other outcome, which the price gave a 2% chance. 26,104 shares, Oct 29, 13:44 EDT.
Plain exchange link. No referral code.
What this means. A wallet put $25.5k on not No, at a price that gave it a 2% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no graded bets yet. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
[01] Bet
What happened
Wallet Tenebrus7 sold No for $25.5k at an average 97.6¢. At that price the market implied 2% for the side they took. Open: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
[02] Flag
Why it was flagged
Low. Labels do not change the grade. Methodology
Size $25.5k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Politics
[04] Price
Price since the bet
Price since this bet
Since entry -1.8 ptsNo price · entry 97.6¢ · now 99.5¢ · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ | $14.1k | OpenAwaiting resolution |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $102.6k | OpenAwaiting resolution |