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What this means. A wallet put $15.3k on No, at a price that gave it a 81% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.3k
BUY No @ 81¢ · 18,850 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet 0x4cb5…b536 took No (buy) for $15.3k at an average 81¢. At that price the market implied a 81% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.3k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 81¢ means
81%chance the market gave
−426American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 81¢
- Implied odds
- 81.0%
- Size
- $15.3k
- Placed
- Jan 30, 03:00 EST
- Market close
- Feb 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x4cb5…b536
- Tx
- 0x65c06a30…
This wallet's graded record
3/4-5.5 pts
expected 3.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $83.5k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $103.1k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |