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What this means. A wallet put $11.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 63% chance. It won. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$11.0k
BUY Yes @ 63¢ · 17,513 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Casdifer took Yes (buy) for $11.0k at an average 63¢. At that price the market implied a 63% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $11.0k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 63¢ means
63%chance the market gave
−169American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 63¢
- Implied odds
- 62.8%
- Size
- $11.0k
- Placed
- Feb 18, 11:52 EST
- Market close
- Feb 28, 04:34 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Casdifer
- Tx
- 0x55b4f84d…
This wallet's graded record
3/5+4.4 pts
expected 2.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +37 ptsYes price · entry 63¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $27.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $38.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $106.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |