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What this means. A wallet put $18.0k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 5% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$18.0k
SELL Yes @ 95.5¢ · 18,851 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Economy
What happened
Wallet Pestle took Yes (sell) for $18.0k at an average 95.5¢. At that price the market implied a 5% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $18.0k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 95.5¢
- Implied odds
- 4.5%
- Size
- $18.0k
- Placed
- Jan 16, 07:14 EST
- Market close
- Jan 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Pestle
- Tx
- 0x53e7ef75…
This wallet's graded record
1/2-3.0 pts
expected 1.1 from price
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Entry to resolution
Grade -5 ptsYes price · entry 95.5¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $55.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $139.9k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |