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What this means. A wallet put $21.5k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 32% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$21.5k
SELL Yes @ 68¢ · 31,608 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet geniusMC took Yes (sell) for $21.5k at an average 68¢. At that price the market implied a 32% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $21.5k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 68¢
- Implied odds
- 31.9%
- Size
- $21.5k
- Placed
- Jan 27, 17:42 EST
- Market close
- Feb 08, 07:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- geniusMC
- Tx
- 0x4fe65172…
This wallet's graded record
3/4+12.7 pts
expected 2.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -32 ptsYes price · entry 68¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 19¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | MED BUY No @ 32¢ | $32.5k | excluded |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $88.9k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | MED BUY No @ 33¢ | $31.8k | excluded |