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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -2.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-2.0 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$1.00M
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$65.7k
Last 30 days −$8,018 · $7.46M volume · 5,925 trades · since Nov 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$521.7k
Open P&L · 202 positions
−$594.4k
Closed-position win rate
56%
352 closed
Wallet age · markets
357d
522 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.1 | -2.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $22.6k | missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 58¢ | $11.9k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 42¢ | $16.8k | called |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 99.8¢ | $119.7k 7.5× usual |
excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 34¢ | $37.7k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 56¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 99.8¢ | $189.2k 11.9× usual |
excluded |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 76¢ | $142.9k 9.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.5k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $21.9k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 99.9¢ | $104.0k 6.5× usual |
excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $110.8k 7.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 73¢ | $14.6k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $14.8k | called |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | MED SELL Argentina @ 96.2¢ | $45.1k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $10.7k | called |
 Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW SELL Seahawks @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $10.2k | called |
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