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What this means. A wallet put $168.5k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has a losing record: -17.8 pts vs the price over 20 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$168.5k
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ · 169,590 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $100kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)6× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet aenews2 took Yes (buy) for $168.5k at an average 99.4¢. At that price the market implied a 99% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $168.5k+2
Near-certain price-2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 99¢ means
99%chance the market gave
−15472American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.4¢
- Implied odds
- 99.4%
- Size
- $168.5k
- Placed
- May 31, 17:45 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 01, 20:50 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- aenews2
- Tx
- 0x444ebdff…
This wallet's graded record
12/20-17.8 pts
expected 15.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +1 ptsYes price · entry 99.4¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $122.6k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $36.0k | excluded |