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What this means. A wallet put $16.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 20% chance. It won. This wallet has a losing record: -17.8 pts vs the price over 20 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$16.2k
BUY No @ 20¢ · 81,768 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideCrypto
What happened
Wallet aenews2 took No (buy) for $16.2k at an average 20¢. At that price the market implied a 20% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $16.2k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 20¢ means
20%chance the market gave
+404American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 20¢
- Implied odds
- 19.8%
- Size
- $16.2k
- Placed
- Jun 01, 08:47 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 01, 13:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- aenews2
- Tx
- 0x3a2e9e12…
This wallet's graded record
12/20-17.8 pts
expected 15.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +80 ptsNo price · entry 20¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $93.3k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $351.6k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $360.0k 7.9× usual |
excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |