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What this means. A wallet put $23.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$23.0k
BUY No @ 99.3¢ · 23,214 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet elmcap2 took No (buy) for $23.0k at an average 99.3¢. At that price the market implied a 99% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $23.0k+0
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 99¢ means
99%chance the market gave
−13969American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.3¢
- Implied odds
- 99.3%
- Size
- $23.0k
- Placed
- Apr 21, 20:45 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- elmcap2
- Tx
- 0x38da1eb8…
This wallet's graded record
3/3+3.7 pts
expected 2.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +1 ptsNo price · entry 99.3¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Trump visit China by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $24.6k | excluded |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $49.9k | excluded |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $12.4k | excluded |