0xshanhai

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did -51.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?−$4,106Yes · avg 45¢ → 36¢ · $14.9k Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?+$81No · avg 65¢ → 70¢ · $1,081 Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?+$19No · avg 95¢ → 96.9¢ · $1,019 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$266Yes · avg 61¢ → 93.5¢ · $766 · 1 proven with, 0 against

Price-adjusted edge

-51.1 pts

Called / graded

0/3

Expected from price

1.5

Flagged volume

$65.9k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$43.8k

Last 30 days +$4,431 · $550.1k volume · 164 trades · since Nov 09, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$47.6k

Open P&L · 5 positions

−$3,709

Closed-position win rate

68%

37 closed

Wallet age · markets

349d

41 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	3	0	1.5	-51.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will France win on 2026-07-18?	LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢	$15.0k	52%	97d ago	missed
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW BUY England @ 54¢	$15.0k	54%	100d ago	missed
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Over @ 47¢	$11.7k	47%	106d ago	missed
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$12.2k	0%	180d ago	excluded
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢	$12.0k	98%	212d ago	excluded

Will France win on 2026-07-18?missed

BUY Yes @ 52¢$15.0k

LOW 0xshanhai · 97d ago

England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancemissed

BUY England @ 54¢$15.0k

LOW 0xshanhai · 100d ago

France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5missed

BUY Over @ 47¢$11.7k

LOW 0xshanhai · 106d ago

Will Trump visit China by April 30?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$12.2k

LOW 0xshanhai · 180d ago

Will Trump visit China by April 30?excluded

BUY No @ 98.2¢$12.0k

LOW 0xshanhai · 212d ago

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