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What this means. A wallet put $12.3k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 30% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.3k
BUY Yes @ 30¢ · 40,938 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took Yes (buy) for $12.3k at an average 30¢. At that price the market implied a 30% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $12.3k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 30¢ means
30%chance the market gave
+233American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 30¢
- Implied odds
- 30.0%
- Size
- $12.3k
- Placed
- May 20, 05:31 EDT
- Market close
- May 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x267729b3…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +70 ptsYes price · entry 30¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $134.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $110.4k | excluded |