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What this means. A wallet put $26.3k on not No, at a price that gave it a 4% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$26.3k
SELL No @ 95.5¢ · 27,525 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took No (sell) for $26.3k at an average 95.5¢. At that price the market implied a 4% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $26.3k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 95.5¢
- Implied odds
- 4.5%
- Size
- $26.3k
- Placed
- May 18, 02:02 EDT
- Market close
- May 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0x1b6db052…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.2k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $46.5k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $40.7k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $54.9k | excluded |