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0xe87f…7d85

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -10.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?+$85No · avg 88¢ → 88¢ · $15.1k · 1 proven with, 0 againstUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?−$76No · avg 79¢ → 78¢ · $3,925
Price-adjusted edge
-10.1 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$180.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$7,940
Last 30 days +$1,331 · $540.6k volume · 135 trades · since Jan 04, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$29.2k
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$37.4k
Closed-position win rate
82%
51 closed
Wallet age · markets
293d
66 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other200.2-10.1 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW SELL No @ 90.8¢ $10.2k9% 67d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW SELL No @ 89¢ $10.2k11% 68d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $37.3k
2.5× usual
0% 115d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $20.0k86% 138d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $16.7k0% 144d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $15.0k90% 165d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢ $11.8k3% 172d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 84¢ $12.6k16% 172d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $31.2k
2.1× usual
1% 180d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 73¢ $15.0k73% 188d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?missed
SELL No @ 90.8¢$10.2k
LOW 0xe87f…7d85 · 67d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?missed
SELL No @ 89¢$10.2k
LOW 0xe87f…7d85 · 68d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$37.3k
LOW 0xe87f…7d85 · 115d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 86¢$20.0k
LOW 0xe87f…7d85 · 138d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$16.7k
LOW 0xe87f…7d85 · 144d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 90¢$15.0k
LOW 0xe87f…7d85 · 165d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?excluded
SELL No @ 97.4¢$11.8k
LOW 0xe87f…7d85 · 172d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?missed
SELL No @ 84¢$12.6k
LOW 0xe87f…7d85 · 172d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$31.2k
LOW 0xe87f…7d85 · 180d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?called
BUY No @ 73¢$15.0k
LOW 0xe87f…7d85 · 188d ago

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