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What this means. A wallet put $166.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 100% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$166.6k
BUY No @ 99.9¢ · 166,730 shares
Size ≥ $100kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)3.3× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet elmcap2 took No (buy) for $166.6k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 100% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $166.6k+2
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 100¢ means
100%chance the market gave
—American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 99.9%
- Size
- $166.6k
- Placed
- May 21, 12:40 EDT
- Market close
- May 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- elmcap2
- Tx
- 0x18b3c485…
This wallet's graded record
3/3+3.7 pts
expected 2.9 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $36.7k | excluded |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $38.0k | excluded |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $66.6k | excluded |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $143.5k | excluded |