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What this means. A wallet put $20.1k on not No, at a price that gave it a 1% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.3 pts over 21 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excluded
$20.1k
SELL No @ 99.5¢ · 20,170 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other

What happened

Wallet betwick took No (sell) for $20.1k at an average 99.5¢. At that price the market implied a 1% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.

Why this was flagged

LOW
Size $20.1k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
Entry price
99.5¢
Implied odds
0.5%
Size
$20.1k
Placed
Nov 26, 17:30 EST
Market close
Nov 27, 19:33 EST
Result
No
Counts toward score
yes
Wallet
betwick
Tx
0x154cedb1…
This wallet's graded record
12/21-0.3 pts
expected 12.1 from price

Entry to resolution

Grade -1 pts
No price · entry 99.5¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢ Whale entry 99.5¢ · $20.1k WHALE $20.1K @ 99.5¢ MISSED
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Other flags on this market

Market page →
MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $35.6k0% debased331d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $74.9k
2.1× usual
0% tsybka331d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $15.0k0% aenews2 LOSING331d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $15.0k0% classified331d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $38.2k100% tsybka331d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $10.4k100% debased331d agoexcluded